The Steinbeck classic. I chose it because my 12-year-old seventh-grader was assigned this book. She is reaching the age where I will enjoy reading (or, usually, re-reading) books from my school career.
I had never read this Steinbeck story, but had a pretty good guess to its ending based on a film I saw as a youngster.
"The Pearl" is my favorite Steinbeck story. I tried re-reading "The Grapes of Wrath" a few years ago but could not complete it, it made me too sad. I may try again.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Monday, October 3, 2011
Pari-mutuel betting and social proof
I am reading "Influence" by Robert Cialdini. One source of influence is "social proof". Think of commercials that state, Tide is the best-selling detergent. The commercial is not stating directly that the product is any good. The fixed-action-pattern is that is everyone else is thinking a certain way then that thinking must be accurate. Cialdini describes many ways this fixed-action-pattern can be exploited, and one is at the racetrack.
Horse racing tracks are examples of pari-mutuel betting. The odds paid on any one horse are based on the betting. If many bettors bet on horse A and few bet on horse B then horse A winning will pay less per dollar bet horse B winning. For example, horse A may pay 4-to-1 odds while horse B pays 25-to-1. The racetrack calculates the odds to ensure that, whichever horse wins, it will have collected enough from the losing bettors to pay the winning bettors, with some left over as profit (or, more accurately, revenue).
Many bettors know little about horses and are content to bet on the horse with the smallest odds, figuring that the smaller odds represent a lot of bettors thinking that horse is likely to win.
A sharp bettor can take advantage of this fact by, at the start of betting, wagering heavily on an unlikely winner. This betting will drive the odds down; amateur bettors will take these odds as evidence of a likely win, bet on this horse, and drive the odds down further.
Then, this sharp bettor can bet on the horse he/she feels is most likely to win and receive better odds than if that original, distracting bet had never been placed. This strategy, if employed repeatedly, should generate higher-than-average payoffs.
Horse racing tracks are examples of pari-mutuel betting. The odds paid on any one horse are based on the betting. If many bettors bet on horse A and few bet on horse B then horse A winning will pay less per dollar bet horse B winning. For example, horse A may pay 4-to-1 odds while horse B pays 25-to-1. The racetrack calculates the odds to ensure that, whichever horse wins, it will have collected enough from the losing bettors to pay the winning bettors, with some left over as profit (or, more accurately, revenue).
Many bettors know little about horses and are content to bet on the horse with the smallest odds, figuring that the smaller odds represent a lot of bettors thinking that horse is likely to win.
A sharp bettor can take advantage of this fact by, at the start of betting, wagering heavily on an unlikely winner. This betting will drive the odds down; amateur bettors will take these odds as evidence of a likely win, bet on this horse, and drive the odds down further.
Then, this sharp bettor can bet on the horse he/she feels is most likely to win and receive better odds than if that original, distracting bet had never been placed. This strategy, if employed repeatedly, should generate higher-than-average payoffs.
My Wife's Foot, Part IV
Julia had her screws removed today in a 30-minute operation. An anesthesiologist gave her propofol, the same drug that Los Angeles alleges killed Michael Jackson; the surgeon then applied local anesthetic to her foot.
She is wearing a large bandage on that foot now and has been instructed to keep it dry for the next seven days. The surgeon also suggested she take it easy for the next few days. She has her ibuprofen and acetaminophen at-the-ready.
She was not anxious about the surgery and is feeling optimistic about her foot.
She is wearing a large bandage on that foot now and has been instructed to keep it dry for the next seven days. The surgeon also suggested she take it easy for the next few days. She has her ibuprofen and acetaminophen at-the-ready.
She was not anxious about the surgery and is feeling optimistic about her foot.
Ivan Pavlov
Commuting stinks, and it is made more tolerable by books-on-CD, such as Psychology of Human Behavior.
Most people are familiar with the name Pavlov and the concept of "Pavlovian response" or "Pavlovian conditioning". According to the book-on-CD Pavlov, who won his Nobel prize for physiology before he started his experiments on dogs, stumbled on to his subject. He used machines to feed dogs so as to study how the digestive system performs its work. Salivation is part of the digestive system, and he and his assistants would collect the saliva as they would collect bile and acid. One day the machine malfunctioned, but still produced the standard click-and-whirr noises, and the dogs still salivated.
Some definitions are in order:
Unconditioned stimulus: a naturally occurring stimulus.
Unconditioned response: a naturally occurring response. When food enters an animal's mouth (the unconditioned stimulus) salivation occurs (the unconditioned response). No learning is necessary for this response, it is "built-in".
Conditioned stimulus: an artificially occurring stimulus, such as a bell being sounded at the same time that food is presented.
Conditioned response: a response generated from the conditioned stimulus (often the same as the unconditioned stimulus).
There are two types of conditioning: classical and operant. Classical conditioning may be approximated as involuntary actions. For example, a sudden noise or flash of light may generate faster heartbeats, and producing such noises or light for the purpose of generating heartbeats would be called classical conditioning. Operant conditioning can be approximated as the study of voluntary actions: does increasing pay generate more or higher-quality work from employees?
Most people are familiar with the name Pavlov and the concept of "Pavlovian response" or "Pavlovian conditioning". According to the book-on-CD Pavlov, who won his Nobel prize for physiology before he started his experiments on dogs, stumbled on to his subject. He used machines to feed dogs so as to study how the digestive system performs its work. Salivation is part of the digestive system, and he and his assistants would collect the saliva as they would collect bile and acid. One day the machine malfunctioned, but still produced the standard click-and-whirr noises, and the dogs still salivated.
Some definitions are in order:
Unconditioned stimulus: a naturally occurring stimulus.
Unconditioned response: a naturally occurring response. When food enters an animal's mouth (the unconditioned stimulus) salivation occurs (the unconditioned response). No learning is necessary for this response, it is "built-in".
Conditioned stimulus: an artificially occurring stimulus, such as a bell being sounded at the same time that food is presented.
Conditioned response: a response generated from the conditioned stimulus (often the same as the unconditioned stimulus).
There are two types of conditioning: classical and operant. Classical conditioning may be approximated as involuntary actions. For example, a sudden noise or flash of light may generate faster heartbeats, and producing such noises or light for the purpose of generating heartbeats would be called classical conditioning. Operant conditioning can be approximated as the study of voluntary actions: does increasing pay generate more or higher-quality work from employees?
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